As per the Budget Code, following the delivery of macroeconomic forecasts and information presented in the draft law of Georgia on the State Budget for 2021 (Final version), concerning by the government of Georgia to the parliament, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) is publishing its independent forecasts.

Major dynamics of the forecasted variables are as follows:
• The real GDP 2021 growth forecast (5.2%) is by 0.9 percentage points (pp) higher compared to the government forecast (4.3%) and differs by 0.2 pp from the PBO forecast of November 2020 . As it is known, the negative consequences caused by the new Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the world have affected almost all countries, including Georgia. To make predictions under the increasing uncertainty, it is necessary to make certain assumptions about the pandemic, the change of which may have a significant impact on the accuracy of the forecast. The forecast of the PBO is based on the assumption that the spread of the virus in Georgia, so-called the "second wave", will peak in the fourth quarter of 2020 and from the second quarter of 2021, the Georgian economy will begin to recover faster than the rest of the world. The assumption also takes into account the country's domestic economic activity, as well as - preliminary estimates and forecasts of economic growth of Georgia's main trading partner countries. It should be noted that the PBO medium run forecast (5.4%) takes into account a planned/expected major increase in government capital expenditures (non-financial assets), the factual dynamics of which might have an impact on realization of PBO forecasts
• According to PBO forecast, in 2021 the consolidated Net Lending/Borrowing (GFSM 2001) ratio to GDP will be equal to -6.8%. This differs by 0.7 pp from the Net Lending/Borrowing given in BDD (-7.5%), which is caused by differences in forecasts of consolidated budget revenues and GDP. It should be stressed, as noted above, with respect to consolidated budget expenditures, that PBO forecasts treat the BDD medium run fiscal plan as the baseline scenario.
• According to PBO and government forecast, the expected current account deficit amounts to 8.5% of GDP in 2021. After 2021, both PBO and Government project the current account balance having a rising trend (i.e. falling deficit).

For more details about updated forecasts of other economic variables, see the full document.