The Reporting Policy of the Parliamentary Budget Office of Georgia (PBO, hereinafter) on macroeconomic developments is based on the institutional mandate of the PBO in a capacity of an IFI within the existing fiscal architecture taking into account the provisions laid down in the Rules of Procedure of the Parliament of Georgia concerning its role in parliament’s budgetary oversight (also considering the relevant provisions of The Budget Code of Georgia).
Having regard to its role as an IFI, PBO is mandated to evaluate the official macroeconomic forecasts used for budgetary planning as well as to produce its own independent medium term forecasts for the whole macroeconomic framework. Thorough evaluation of the government’s macroforecasts includes scrutiny of the economic assumptions underpinning them, comparison with its own forecasts and those prepared by other institutions, and evaluation of past forecast performance. As for PBO’s independent Macroeconomic Forecasting Model(PBOMFM), it has both long-run (theoretical) and short-run (data-based) dynamics and is consistent with the Financial Programming and Policy (FPP) framework developed by International Monetary Fund (IMF), thereby allowing for four sectors:
- Real Sector
- Fiscal Sector
- External Sector
- Monetary Sector.
For the detailed description of the methodologies behind the PBOMFM, please see our Methodological Note.
Taking into account the budget cycle, in particular, provisions set out in the Articles 34, 38-39 of the Budget Code of Georgia and Articles 136-138 of the Rules of Procedure of the Parliament of Georgia, as well as the availability of the relevant data, PBO’s annual macroeconomic forecasts are revised twice a year. The timetable is determined as follows:
- Based on the timetable of the parliamentary review of the information on key macroeconomic forecasts and major directions of the ministries that is submitted by the Government by June 1;
- Based on the timetable of the parliamentary review of the final versions of the Basic Data and Directions (BDD) Document (MTBF for Georgian fiscal framework) and draft state budget together with the supporting documents that are submitted to the Parliament no later than November 30.
Furthermore, to ensure that the stakeholders have timely and regular updates on key anticipated developments in macroeconomic environment using the most up-to-date information, PBO produces quarterly GDP growth forecasts, usually within the 1.5 month after the start of the quarter concerned.
Parliamentary Budget Office closely monitors core developments in macroeconomic environment throughout the year and reports to the Parliament at the following frequencies:
- Short monthly reviews capturing the major developments in macropolicy - Taking into account the availability of relevant statistical data, monthly reviews are generally published within 10 days after the end of the month concerned;
- Quarterly macroeconomic reviews – aiming to support the discussion of the Government’s Quarterly Budget Execution Reports submitted to the Parliament in accordance with the Article 139 of Budget Code of Georgia. Taking into account the availability of relevant statistical data, quarterly reviews are generally published within 35 days after the end of the quarter concerned.
- Annual Macroconomic Review – The review attempts to thoroughly examine all major sectors of the economy as well as to cover specific important topics related to macropolicy as considered appropriate by the PBO analysts. Taking into account the availability of relevant statistical data and parliamentary timetable of the review of the Government’s Annual State Budget Execution Report, PBO’s Annual Macroeconomic Review is generally published no later than within 5 months after the end of the fiscal year.
For the publication dates of our reports throughout 2019, please see The Calendar, 2019 below.
* Due to resource constraints, not all our publications are available in English. However, we try to do our best to ensure that non-Georgian speaking users of our products are provided with at least the summary of all our reports.