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Macroeconomic Forecasts - June 2016

According to the Parliamentary Budget Office's macroeconomic forecasting model (PBOMFM), Georgian economy will grow by 3.2% in 2016, while in the medium-term (2017-2020) forecasted real GDP growth rate on average equals to 4.7%.PBO forecasts that net lending/borrowing and fiscal balance will amount to -1.5% and -3.4% of GDP in 2016, respectively. PBO's forecasts of net lending/borrowing and fiscal balance are slightly lower than that of MOF. This mainly due to the fact that PBO's projection of revenues (8 565 mln GEL) and nominal GDP are also lower those of MOF's. Read More
Overview of Annual Report of Georgia’s 2015 State Budget Execution

Answers on Key Questions/Issues On aggregate level, are the deviations from target plan visible for state budget items? In 2015, state receipts totaled GEL 9,891 mln, equal to 101% of final (November 2015) plan and 100% of initial plan target. In addition, state budget payments for the year totaled GEL 9,703 mln and equal to 101% of initial and final plan target. Are the items of the state budget receipts mobilized as planed? Items of receipts (except from the decrease in financial assets) with respect to final plan do not show substantial deviation (the performance of revenues, decrease of non-financial assets and increase in liabilities vary around 101%-103% of respective annual plan). However, not similar pattern is observed compared to the initial annual plan, especially in case of decrease of non-financial (338%) and financial (80%) assets. Read More
Macroeconomic Forecasts

Based on the PBO's Macroeconomic Forecasting Model, economy is expected to grow at 3.5% in 2016, while in the medium-term (2017-2019) forecasted real GDP growth rate on average equals to 4.9%.Based on the PBO's forecasts, net/lending borrowing will amount -1.2% of GDP in 2016 that slightly differs from MoF forecast. Particularly, PBO projects that budget revenue will equal 8,694 mln GEL that is slightly less than forecasted value represented by MoF. It is worth to mention that projected values of budget expenditures are taken exogenously from the MoF medium term plans represented in the BDD baseline scenario. Read More
Macroeconomic Forecasting Model

The current design of the Parliamentary Budget Office of Georgia (PBO) Macroeconomic Forecasting Model (PBOMFM) is consistent with the Financial Programming and Policy (FPP) framework that is developed by International Monetary Fund (IMF). The PBOMFM strikes a balance between theory and practice according to its purpose of providing accurate forecasts and policy analysis. The PBOMFM has both long-run (theoretical) and short-run (data-based) dynamics. The econometric estimates of the model’s parameters and its short-run dynamics are based on the data analysis and calibration for the Georgian economy. The PBOMFM is a practical and robust tool for economic forecasting in Georgia. PBO’s macroeconomic forecasts are publicly available on its website and in print. Read More

Budget Analysis

Macroeconomic Analysis

Cost Estimates and Legislative Support

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David Usupashvili and representatives of…

17-05-2016

The Speaker met Mr. Mark Dembowicz- Head of strategy, operations and communications unit, Mr. Jon Riley – Head of Tax and fiscal forecasts unit and Mr. Tom Pybus – Head...

The meeting of the Parliamentary Budget …

16-05-2016

In the framework of strategic partnership, representatives of the parliamentary budget office chaired by the acting head Ms. Tatia Khetaguri and experts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) held...

Parliamentary Delegation participated in…

15-04-2016

On April 11-12, the Parliamentary Delegation, mainly the head Mr. Tamaz Mechiauri and deputy head Mr. Nodar Ebanoidze from the Budget and Finance Committee, together with the acting head of...